The closure of the Cobre Panama mine has significantly influenced Panama's political and economic landscape as the country approaches its presidential elections. The mine, which is a major component of Panama's economy, contributing about 5% to the nation's GDP, was shut down following a Supreme Court ruling that declared a new contract with First Quantum Minerals unconstitutional. This decision came amidst widespread protests demanding greater accountability and improved public services.

The closure has cast a shadow over the election, with potential impacts on economic growth and foreign investment. The economic fallout from the mine's shutdown is substantial, with estimates suggesting that Panama's economic growth could drop significantly. The International Monetary Fund has projected that the closure could drag economic growth down to 2.5% this year, a sharp decline from 7.5% in 2023. This economic downturn is partly due to the mine's closure directly affecting revenues and exacerbating fiscal pressures such as a rising budget deficit and increased government debt, which is expected to reach 61% of GDP (Yahoo) (Mining Weekly).

Political candidates are treading cautiously around the topic of the mine in their campaigns, reflecting its contentious nature and the significant public opposition to its operations. The leading presidential candidates have expressed opposition to reopening the mine, aligning with public sentiment that has been strongly against the mine due to environmental concerns and perceived infringements on national sovereignty (MINING.COM) (Americas Quarterly).

Investors are also wary, as evidenced by Panama's bonds becoming one of the worst performers in emerging markets following the mine's closure. This financial strain highlights concerns about the country's ability to manage its fiscal responsibilities without the revenue from the mine (Yahoo).

Overall, the situation presents a complex challenge for the next administration, which will need to address these economic and social issues in a manner that reconciles public welfare with economic stability.